Internet Holds Up Under the Unprecedented Demand of COVID-19
About a month ago, Cloudflare published an analysis of how internet traffic patterns shifted as the COVID-19 pandemic forced billions of people to work from home and practice social distancing. At the time, Cloudflare stated that its network was well provisioned for significant traffic spikes, with no anticipated impact on performance, reliability, or security. That assessment still holds true. As we settle into April, the global internet has demonstrated its resilience: Cloudflare reports that its network is performing as expected despite carrying substantially more load.
Where Traffic Growth Is Highest
Using a seven-day trailing average with December 29, 2019, as the reference baseline, Cloudflare tracks the relative growth in internet usage per country. The sharpest rise has been in Portugal, where traffic is currently up about 50%. Spain closely follows, with the UK not far behind. Italy’s usage surged roughly 40% before leveling off at the end of March, and France appears to be plateauing at around a 30% increase.
It’s noteworthy how steeply usage climbed in the UK, Spain, and Portugal. Spain and Portugal’s trajectories are almost perfectly synchronized, with the UK lagging about two weeks behind. While the growth curves differ, the overall effect is consistent with widespread stay-at-home orders.
Other major economies show a similar picture. The US, Canada, Australia, and Brazil are all running at 40% to 50% above their usage levels from the beginning of the year.
Measuring Congestion via Round Trip Time
To assess whether the sudden load is degrading network health, Cloudflare measures the TCP round trip time (RTT) between its servers and visitors to customer sites. RTT is a direct measure of path speed, and sustained rises in RTT can signal network congestion.
Cloudflare’s vantage point is global. The company connects to the largest number of internet exchanges worldwide, maintains a presence in 200 cities, and relies heavily on peering. Because of that reach, the TCP RTT Cloudflare observes is a good proxy for the performance of end-user networks within a country. The following chart shows the median and 95th percentile RTT for the UK over the last 90 days.
The most notable detail in the UK data is the absence of change. Even as traffic rose steeply (grey line), RTT appears unaffected, suggesting the UK’s networks are coping well under pressure.
The Italian dataset tells a slightly different story.
In Italy, both the median and 95th percentile RTT climbed as traffic increased, a sign that networks there were initially operating with less headroom. However, the chart also reveals a positive trend: as usage plateaued, RTT partially recovered, particularly at the 95th percentile. That recovery suggests Italian ISPs and other providers have taken steps to mitigate the strain.
Although Italian networks show more stress than Britain’s, the data does not indicate a failing infrastructure—just one enduring greater load.
The Bigger Picture
The internet has absorbed an explosive, sudden rise in demand without losing stability. Cloudflare's observations corroborate what many operators report: some last-mile networks are feeling the pressure of new usage patterns, but the broader system is holding. A 50% sustained increase in demand would be a formidable test for most utilities—electric, gas, or water. The internet is clearing the bar, though not without measurable effort. Expect the next few weeks to reveal which segments of the infrastructure need further attention as quarantines continue. Until then, the signs are good: the internet is buckling but not breaking.
