Analyzing the evidence that helps businesses win “product not received” disputes

What the data says about winning “product not received” disputes

“Product not received” is the most common nonfraud dispute category on Stripe, and it puts merchants in a difficult position: some cardholders genuinely never received their order, while others file claims that don’t hold up. Stripe analyzed evidence packets from one million disputes over a 16-week period, comparing win rates for responses that included different types of evidence against those that didn’t. The results highlight which evidence matters most—and how much timing and specificity affect outcomes.

Delivery evidence is the strongest lever for physical goods

For merchants selling physical goods, disputes with delivery confirmation as evidence had a 27 percentage point higher win rate than disputes without it. Adding a GPS delivery map—which shows where the carrier scanned the package—lifted win rates by an additional 15 percentage points on top of delivery confirmation alone. Including a recipient signature added another two percentage points. Altogether, disputes with delivery confirmation, a GPS map, and a signature had a 44 percentage point higher win rate than disputes without them.

Despite that impact, many merchants still omit delivery confirmation from their dispute responses. The barrier is often operational rather than technical: shipping data and dispute workflows usually live in separate systems, so matching a dispute to the correct order and confirmed delivery status requires manual effort that doesn’t scale well.

Submission timing matters as much as the tracking ID itself

Many merchants submit a shipping tracking ID as proof of delivery, but a tracking number only confirms what the carrier’s status shows at the moment the evidence is submitted. If the package is still in transit, the tracking ID may only prove that it left the facility.

The analysis found that disputes with evidence submitted after delivery was confirmed had a 27 percentage point higher win rate than those with no delivery confirmation. Disputes where evidence was submitted while the package was still in transit saw only a two percentage point lift over no delivery confirmation.

Customers sometimes file a “product not received” dispute before an order arrives, especially if a shipment is delayed. Since most businesses have 20 or more days to respond, merchants should consider waiting until the carrier confirms arrival before submitting evidence, if the dispute window allows. If submission has to happen before delivery is confirmed, including documentation that the order is still within the delivery time frame presented at checkout can help.

Digital goods require proof of access and use

Businesses selling digital goods face the same burden of proving fulfillment, but the evidence looks different. Disputes that included digital activity and usage logs—such as JSON telemetry logs from common analytics platforms showing that a user streamed, downloaded, or accessed the specific product they purchased—had a 10 percentage point higher win rate than those without them. Service documentation, such as provisioning records, was associated with an eight percentage point higher win rate.

The lesson is consistent with physical goods: specificity wins. Service documentation may only demonstrate that a customer had access, while content consumption logs can show that the customer actually used the specific product they paid for.

Refund evidence works—but only if the issuer can verify it

Cardholders can file a dispute even after a refund has been processed, often because the refund and dispute occurred around the same time or the issuing bank didn’t check refund status before filing. Merchants frequently respond by including proof of the refund, but the impact depends on how the refund was issued.

For businesses selling digital goods, a full refund issued through Stripe was the strongest predictor of high win rates: disputes with that evidence had a 63 percentage point higher win rate than those without it. Refunds issued via other channels, like store credit, only saw a six percentage point lift.

The likely explanation is verifiability. When a refund is processed through the payment processor, the issuing bank can verify the credit on the card network. A refund issued outside the processor leaves no record the issuer can check.

Automation can close the gap

Stripe’s Smart Disputes feature applies these practices automatically, using AI to assemble tailored evidence packets for eligible card disputes. Merchants can supply a shipping carrier and tracking number when a dispute arrives—Stripe supports more than 12 shipping providers and pulls the full fulfillment history, including delivery status, time stamps, and location data. Additional evidence, such as customer communications or supplementary documentation, can be merged into the auto-generated packet.

If no action is taken before the dispute deadline, Smart Disputes submits the evidence on its own to avoid losses from missed deadlines. No additional integration is required for merchants already using Stripe. The insight, projections, and forward-looking statements here are for informational purposes only; actual results may differ materially.